Why HTML5 Video Won't Replace Flash

I work for a company that makes its money sticking ads in online videos.  In the past we've always done this with Flash, integrating our ad system with our custom Flash player or 3rd party Flash players.  Now that the iPad is out, and it's more clear then ever that Apple will never support Flash, I've been tasked with building a proof of concept HTML5 player.
Everyone Loves HTML5 Video...Well Almost Everyone...
As a user I love HTML5 video.  As a developer I love HTML5 video.  You know who doesn't love HTML5 video?  Premium content providers.  That's a fancy way of saying ABC, NBC, Hulu, Netflix...basically all the people who make and distribute video in a class above "guy getting hit in crouch".  You know why?

That's the menu that pops up when you right click on an HTML5 video in Chrome.  You see the option "Save video as..."?  Two clicks and the original video is downloaded.  Firefox has a similar option.  As my mentor D. Vader would say: "All too easy". 
That's Not What I Get When I Right Click In YouTube
YouTube tries to prevent this by overlaying a div over the video element with the class "video-blocker". When you right click you get the normal browser context menu instead of the HTML5 video context menu. This is like sites that try to block an image from being saved.  It's stupid and easy to overcome.
This is also the reason that the YouTube html5 pages states:
This is an opt-in experiment for HTML5 support on YouTube. If you are using a supported browser, you can choose to use the HTML5 player instead of the Flash player for most videos.
The premium videos on YouTube - Flash only.  It's just too easy to download the content directly with HTML5.   This is why you will NEVER EVER see a Hulu HTML5 player or a Netflix HTML5 player (I know Netflix is Silverlight, but for the purposes of this post it's in the same league as Flash). 
This isn't even bringing up how you can't truly disable the scrubber (the progress bar), which makes skipping commercials a breeze.  Oh "27 seconds until my show resumes"?  Thanks, now I know how far to drag forward.
Why HTML5 Video is Bad for the Internet
Where this really sucks is when companies don't include Flash support because they believe everything will be HTML5 in a few years.  Yes, I'm talking about Apple and no I don't actually believe this is why they don't have Flash support, but I've seen enough posts that claim Apple is so forward thinking they wouldn't waste time with a dinosaur like Flash. 
More likely Steve Jobs and Joe Adobe were at a bar in the '70s and Joe Adobe picked up some chick over Jobs and he's been bitter ever since.  Actually if Apple ever announced this was the real reason for not supporting Flash I think we would all understand and side with Apple.
Apple Is A Big Fucking Deal
Apple is a big fucking deal, so they can say "suck it Flash" and get away with it.  The premium content providers will jump through the hoops of making custom players (apps) in the programming languages they're told to use and distribute them only though the all mighty iTunes birth canal.  Who get's screwed in this arrangement?  Content providers not big enough to build their own apps and content providers who can't get the keys to the iTunes chastity belt.  The latter is referring to the porn industry.  And frankly Jobs I would stop antagonizing the porn industry.  They will wreck you.
We're Screwed Here Too
Who else is screwed (even though they don't know it)?  The user (that's you).  Now every time you want to watch a video that isn't a sneezing panda you have to download and install an app.  In a strange way this is actually a feature, since iPad/iPhone users love their apps.  "Look at me.  My iPad is 75 apps long".  Hell Apple even rolled a whole ad campaign around this.  Want to watch an ABC video?  There's an app for that.  Want to watch a movie on Netflix?  There's an app for that.  Unfortunately that app isn't "browser".
This also works because there are like 3 premium content providers people give a shit about (Hulu, Netflix, ABC).  But now imagine if the video hosting sites get gun shy for HTML5 because of how easy it is to grab the videos.  This isn't a stretch - look at the bullshit YouTube is pulling.  There are like a million of these sites.  Now everytime you want to watch a homemade instructional video on how to wield a lightsaber you have to install another propietary app.  Is this really better then Flash?  At least you already have that installed.
Really the best case scenario for an HTML5 world is:

 
Desktop
Mobile/Tablet

Crotch Slam Videos
HTML5
HTML5

Quality TV/Movies/Porn
Flash
Proprietary app - if you're lucky

I don't know about you, but I'm not really excited about that world.  What about a world where HTML5 video doesn't exist?  Maybe Apple (seers of all that is to come) realize that they have to support Flash and we end up like this:

 
Desktop
Mobile/Tablet

Crotch Slam Videos
Flash
Flash

Quality TV/Movies/Porn
Flash
Flash (ok, I don't even believe that).  Proprietary App.

I hate Flash banners, Flash landing pages, Flash widgets, Flash photo galleries and all the rest.  Flash Video though, yeah, it has issues, but it also kinda works.  HTML5 is better, but it's just not gonna kill off flash.  HTML5 > Flash > Proprietary App.  I wish it was the last one we were killing off, but instead it's growing.